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Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 3:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 18 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 17 games
88%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 16 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 15 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 14 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 12 games
75%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 12 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 11 games
82%

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 22 games
55%
Largo
Largooften banned
kae · 13 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
86 · 11 games
73%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 11 games
27%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kae · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
86 · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
500 picks · 352 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
354 picks · 638 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
349 picks · 397 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
326 picks · 182 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 455 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 345 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
301 picks · 570 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
297 picks · 229 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 57%
Hero pool strength61% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total83% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:30
Level UP 68%Team Spirit Academy 32%
The model gave 68% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 48:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaWoE
48% · 31 game60% · 55 games
Slark86
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
48% · 143 games49% · 223 games
Axekae
Axe
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBb3px
43% · 50 games49% · 99 games
MiranaAidar
Mirana
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
52% · 83 games
Undying
UndyingHtrd
51% · 70 games
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Level UP 72%Team Spirit Academy 28%
The model gave 72% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 32:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
58% · 33 games44% · 90 games
Dawnbreakerkae
Dawnbreaker
Sniper
SniperAinkrad
57% · 12 games46% · 45 games
Necrophos86
Necrophos
Doom
DoomBb3px
52% · 65 games39% · 96 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Undying
UndyingHtrd
59% · 74 games
Lion
Lionqueezy
60% · 47 games
Game 3prediction missed40:45
Level UP 70%Team Spirit Academy 30%
The model gave 70% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 53:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
50% · 201 game51% · 346 games
Pangolier86
Pangolier
Lina
LinaWoE
46% · 40 games53% · 224 games
Axekae
Axe
Underlord
UnderlordBb3px
48% · 126 games51% · 117 games
MiranaAidar
Mirana
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
49% · 159 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHtrd
47% · 161 game
Game 4prediction correct32:30
Level UP 72%Team Spirit Academy 28%
The model gave 72% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:14:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAinkrad
48% · 152 games48% · 145 games
Timbersawkae
Timbersaw
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
64% · 44 games42% · 65 games
Kunkka86
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaBb3px
52% · 42 games53% · 166 games
BaneAidar
Bane
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
48% · 112 games
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorHtrd
44% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 83%
Series resultLevel UP 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4