PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
wwloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balaclavaswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ww
No games played over 6 months.
Balaclavas
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
383 picks · 347 bans
Puck
340 picks · 860 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 170 bans
Pugna
295 picks · 339 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 790 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
281 picks · 126 bans
Batrider
273 picks · 684 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% ww
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Balaclavas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ww 47%Balaclavas 53%
The model gave 53% on Balaclavas — the game was taken by Balaclavas.
Game 2prediction correct
ww 47%Balaclavas 53%
The model gave 53% on Balaclavas — the game was taken by Balaclavas.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalaclavas · 53%
Series resultBalaclavas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2