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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
35%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 17 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
76%
Axe
Axesignature
Infernal · 16 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 16 games
44%

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 35 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Panto · 25 games
76%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 23 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
381 picks · 347 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 861 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 169 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
294 picks · 339 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 791 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 126 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 687 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:11
Yellow Submarine 26%Aurora Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursabottega
49% · 131 game56% · 207 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
48% · 225 games50% · 125 games
Leshrackiyotaka
Leshrac
Earthshaker
EarthshakerInfernal
55% · 214 games48% · 176 games
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksayuw
47% · 223 games52% · 199 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
42% · 95 games54% · 181 game
PugnaPanto
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct42:38
Yellow Submarine 27%Aurora Gaming 73%
The model gave 73% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 55:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanInfernal
52% · 100 games66% · 46 games
BroodmotherNightfall
Broodmother
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightbottega
51% · 18 games61% · 164 games
Monkey Kingkiyotaka
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
43% · 167 games45% · 173 games
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfiresayuw
47% · 164 games48% · 50 games
ZeusMira
Zeus
Pugna
PugnaXakoda
46% · 182 games48% · 198 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct22:35
Yellow Submarine 26%Aurora Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMirele
53% · 323 games45% · 179 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbottega
59% · 212 games46% · 364 games
Dragon Knightkiyotaka
Dragon Knight
Tiny
Tinysayuw
51% · 439 games44% · 271 game
DawnbreakerTORONTOTOKYO
Dawnbreaker
Mars
MarsInfernal
50% · 196 games50% · 319 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterXakoda
53% · 164 games49% · 201 game
DisruptorMira
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 87%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3