PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTTeklawin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The MongolZloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tekla
No games played over 6 months.
The MongolZ
Doomoften banned
JG · 3 games
Dragon Knight
Bob · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
DJ · 3 games
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Bob · 2 games
Hoodwink
ace12 · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
380 picks · 343 bans
Puck
341 picks · 858 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 168 bans
Pugna
293 picks · 336 bans
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 790 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 249 bans
Warlock
280 picks · 126 bans
Batrider
274 picks · 686 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Tekla
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% The MongolZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:14
Tekla 50%The MongolZ 50%
The model gave 50% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by Tekla in 32:12.
Game 2prediction correct11:30
Tekla 50%The MongolZ 50%
The model gave 50% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 31:40.
Game 3prediction missed34:38
Tekla 50%The MongolZ 50%
The model gave 50% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by Tekla in 41:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 50%
Series resultTekla 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3