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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ivorywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 2 games
50%

Ivory

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 6 games
17%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Dric~ · 5 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
380 picks · 343 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 858 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 168 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
293 picks · 336 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 790 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 249 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 126 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 686 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 29%
Hero pool strength53% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:39
Yangon Galacticos 52%Ivory 48%
The model gave 52% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Ivory in 32:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKsh
52% · 195 games50% · 111 games
Shadow FiendKen
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYoung PH
47% · 198 games45% · 63 games
MarsRupido
Mars
56% · 100 games
PugnaTeehee
Pugna
52% · 119 games
Shadow ShamanDric~
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed17:41
Yangon Galacticos 52%Ivory 48%
The model gave 52% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Ivory in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKsh
52% · 64 games44% · 5 games
VenomancerRupido
Venomancer
Slardar
SlardarYoung PH
57% · 42 games51% · 48 games
Sand KingKen
Sand King
47% · 26 games
LionDric~
Lion
40% · 27 games
Naga SirenTeehee
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 53%
Series resultIvory 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2