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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 18 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 13 games
46%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 22 games
59%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 18 games
44%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 17 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 15 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
374 picks · 341 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
340 picks · 853 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
327 picks · 167 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
292 picks · 336 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 788 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
280 picks · 248 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
279 picks · 126 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
272 picks · 686 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:37
Nemiga Gaming 50%eSpoiled 50%
The model gave 50% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 49:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursabashka
60% · 83 games46% · 21 game
Faceless Voidssnovv1
Faceless Void
Invoker
Invokeryoung G
56% · 106 games56% · 113 games
Void SpiritDifference
Void Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCovisnine
33% · 16 games42% · 119 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
49% · 141 game44% · 93 games
DisruptorWein
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed47:26
Nemiga Gaming 47%eSpoiled 53%
The model gave 53% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:03:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerbashka
44% · 121 game54% · 175 games
Medusassnovv1
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyoung G
46% · 245 games58% · 98 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Mars
MarsCovisnine
41% · 170 games53% · 411 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Batrider
Batriderxsvampire
53% · 320 games50% · 172 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct20:26
Nemiga Gaming 45%eSpoiled 55%
The model gave 55% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladebashka
46% · 173 games43% · 168 games
Medusassnovv1
Medusa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
51% · 102 games52% · 114 games
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey Kingyoung G
52% · 170 games44% · 135 games
SnapfireWein
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonxsvampire
53% · 88 games58% · 116 games
Elder Titanasdekor_r
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 53%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3