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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 34 games
59%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
66%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 31 game
74%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 31 game
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 30 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
54%

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 35 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Panto · 25 games
76%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
371 picks · 336 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 850 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
325 picks · 163 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
293 picks · 334 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 789 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
277 picks · 125 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
272 picks · 688 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
Runa Team 31%Aurora Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladenesfeer
45% · 292 games54% · 159 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
52% · 169 games50% · 106 games
LycanTORONTOTOKYO
Lycan
Slardar
SlardarAlberkaaa
48% · 68 games55% · 261 game
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
45% · 166 games57% · 179 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilencerHduo
46% · 145 games49% · 135 games
DisruptorPanto
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct6:19
Runa Team 30%Aurora Gaming 70%
The model gave 70% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 25:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
55% · 181 game47% · 224 games
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
Shadow Fiend
Magnus
MagnusAlberkaaa
57% · 206 games55% · 137 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
47% · 215 games43% · 190 games
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
Mars
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
43% · 171 game52% · 232 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
52% · 141 game48% · 131 game
Elder TitanPanto
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 83%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2