PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Balaclavaswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DOGSENTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Balaclavas
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 1 game
DOGSENT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
371 picks · 336 bans
Puck
339 picks · 850 bans
Snapfire
325 picks · 163 bans
Pugna
293 picks · 334 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 789 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
277 picks · 125 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 688 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% DOGSENT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Balaclavas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Balaclavas 51%DOGSENT 49%
The model gave 51% on Balaclavas — the game was taken by Balaclavas.
Game 2prediction correct
Balaclavas 51%DOGSENT 49%
The model gave 51% on Balaclavas — the game was taken by Balaclavas.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalaclavas · 51%
Series resultBalaclavas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2