PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 34 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 31 game
Dark Willow
queezy · 31 game
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 30 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
Passion UA
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
Snapfiresignature
QBFY · 18 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
371 picks · 333 bans
Puck
339 picks · 845 bans
Snapfire
320 picks · 163 bans
Pugna
293 picks · 332 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 788 bans
Warlock
275 picks · 124 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 686 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total72% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:23
Runa Team 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Passion UA in 21:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshakernicky`cool
MarsBatyuk
Lifestealernesfeer
UrsaCrystallize
SlardarAlberkaaa
Queen of PainMoonlight
Snapfirequeezy
Shadow DemonQBFY
WarlockHduo
Silencerkreker
Game 2prediction missed
Runa Team 72%Passion UA 28%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 72%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2