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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Bikini Bottomwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 29 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Niku · 19 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 13 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
85%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Niku · 11 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
gotthejuice · 10 games
80%

Bikini Bottom

Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
aik · 4 games
75%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
QBFY · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
xsvampire · 3 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ряф^^ · 3 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
rincyq · 2 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyer
ряф^^ · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
367 picks · 332 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
336 picks · 842 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
318 picks · 163 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
293 picks · 332 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 246 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 783 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
273 picks · 124 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
271 picks · 686 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:14
Natus Vincere Junior 68%Bikini Bottom 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 30:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 68%
Series resultBikini Bottom 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1