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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
47%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 35 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 30 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Nande · 26 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
48%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Pablo · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
365 picks · 330 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 839 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 162 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
291 picks · 332 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 246 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 783 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
273 picks · 124 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
271 picks · 685 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Virtus.pro 65%Zero Tenacity 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
50% · 204 games56% · 304 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
54% · 138 games55% · 142 games
Ursa423
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
45% · 258 games49% · 184 games
EarthshakerMirage
Earthshaker
Chen
ChenFly
59% · 103 games48% · 75 games
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Keeper of the Light
Snapfire
SnapfireAntares
38% · 169 games46% · 167 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed14:32
Virtus.pro 65%Zero Tenacity 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAbed
48% · 339 games57% · 154 games
Shadow FiendMirage
Shadow Fiend
Ursa
UrsaTimado
56% · 135 games54% · 232 games
Bristleback423
Bristleback
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
37% · 19 games49% · 87 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Axe
AxeDaxak
44% · 128 games47% · 221 game
Dark WillowJeezy
Dark Willow
Pugna
PugnaFly
52% · 209 games48% · 136 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct18:14
Virtus.pro 65%Zero Tenacity 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAbed
51% · 269 games52% · 267 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
46% · 240 games52% · 107 games
LycanNefrit
Lycan
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
52% · 118 games51% · 125 games
Kunkka423
Kunkka
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
43% · 19 games51% · 162 games
PugnaSe
Pugna
Snapfire
SnapfireFly
54% · 194 games45% · 179 games
HoodwinkJeezy
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 77%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3