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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 23 games
65%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 18 games
56%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 16 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Copy · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 12 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
73%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 20 games
35%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 17 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 17 games
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 16 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
364 picks · 329 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
334 picks · 839 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
313 picks · 162 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
291 picks · 332 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 246 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 783 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
273 picks · 124 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
271 picks · 685 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:7
Natus Vincere 72%Yellow Submarine 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
57% · 55 games47% · 46 games
Troll WarlordDarkLord^
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNiku
54% · 228 games51% · 219 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Undying
Undyingpma
50% · 90 games48% · 140 games
MarsInfernal
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
50% · 208 games39% · 163 games
Hoodwinksayuw
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzleRiddys
52% · 74 games51% · 87 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct43:26
Natus Vincere 68%Yellow Submarine 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 47:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svengotthejuice
49% · 114 games59% · 139 games
UrsaDarkLord^
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
48% · 230 games53% · 195 games
EarthshakerMirele
Earthshaker
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
44% · 287 games51% · 127 games
AxeInfernal
Axe
Disruptor
DisruptorZayac
47% · 171 game50% · 185 games
SnapfireXakoda
Snapfire
Dazzle
DazzleRiddys
50% · 66 games51% · 222 games
Shadow Demonsayuw
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 84%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2