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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:1
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Passion UAwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 5 games
20%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
egx · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristleback
takizawa · 2 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
egx · 2 games
0%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
takizawa · 2 games
0%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
82%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 16 games
63%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 16 games
69%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
364 picks · 329 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
334 picks · 838 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
312 picks · 161 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
291 picks · 332 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 246 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 782 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
273 picks · 124 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
271 picks · 684 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 55%
Hero pool strength61% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
VP.Prodigy 31%Passion UA 69%
The model gave 69% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
50% · 119 games52% · 59 games
Void SpiritBatyuk
Void Spirit
Ursa
Ursaegx
54% · 107 games50% · 114 games
Shadow FiendCrystallize
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand Kingспортик
54% · 153 games51% · 112 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkarmageddon
45% · 188 games43% · 169 games
SnapfireQBFY
Snapfire
51% · 113 games
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 81%
Series resultPassion UA 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1