Solo Team vs GoodWin Team — prediction BSBХД 11 · Dota 2

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BetBoom Streamers Battle х Динамо 11 · BO3

result vs prediction

Solo Teamloss 1:2

series probability

32%68%

probability at match start · final 1:2

GoodWin Teamwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Solo Team

No games played over 6 months.

GoodWin Team

Nature's Prophetoften banned

Mariachi · 4 games

75%

Void Spirit

GoodWin · 4 games

75%

Crystal Maiden

Lesn4ok · 3 games

67%

Disruptor

Leviamur · 3 games

33%

Faceless Voidoften banned

Mariachi · 3 games

67%

Kunkkaoften banned

Mariachi · 3 games

33%

Techies

Lesn4ok · 3 games

Tidehunteroften banned

GoodWin · 3 games

33%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Disruptor

355 picks · 325 bans

51%

Puck

333 picks · 834 bans

51%

Snapfire

306 picks · 155 bans

56%

Pugna

289 picks · 327 bans

55%

Dawnbreaker

280 picks · 779 bans

49%

Tusk

278 picks · 247 bans

47%

Warlock

271 picks · 124 bans

52%

Shadow Shaman

266 picks · 171 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%

Hero pool strength51% GoodWin Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total68% GoodWin Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct29:51

Solo Team 40%GoodWin Team 60%

The model gave 60% on GoodWin Team — the game was taken by GoodWin Team in 1:00:42.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo