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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hong shi zhang zuiwin 1:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Tearlamentsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hong shi zhang zui

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
TK · 10 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
TK · 6 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 5 games
80%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
75%
Bane
Bane
Undyne_ · 3 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 3 games
100%

Tearlaments

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 8 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 7 games
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
7e · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
355 picks · 325 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 834 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
306 picks · 155 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
289 picks · 327 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 779 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
278 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
271 picks · 124 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
266 picks · 171 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hong shi zhang zui 42%Tearlaments 58%
The model gave 58% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui.
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 58%
Series resultHong shi zhang zui 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1