BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tearlamentsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 26 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 17 games
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Dark Seersignature
BEYOND · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
Oli · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
Tearlaments
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
poyoyo · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
Ringmaster
7e · 6 games
Snapfire
7e · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
351 picks · 322 bans
Puck
331 picks · 828 bans
Snapfire
303 picks · 152 bans
Pugna
288 picks · 323 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 776 bans
Tusk
276 picks · 245 bans
Warlock
270 picks · 124 bans
Shadow Shaman
265 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 69%
Hero pool strength57% Tearlaments
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total64% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:36
Yakult Brothers 54%Tearlaments 46%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomzeal
Nature's ProphetEcho
EarthshakerEmo
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Queen of Painflyfly
MarsSrf
WindrangerBoBoKa
Snapfire7e
TuskPoloson
Banezzq
Game 2prediction correct28:14
Yakult Brothers 56%Tearlaments 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusaflyfly
Lunapoyoyo
Dark Seerzeal
BristlebackSrf
Storm SpiritEmo
Sand KingEcho
AlchemistBoBoKa
Hoodwink7e
DisruptorPoloson
Banezzq
Game 3prediction correct17:22
Yakult Brothers 56%Tearlaments 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusazeal
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
Anti-Mageflyfly
Sand KingEcho
Storm SpiritEmo
MarsSrf
Monkey KingBoBoKa
Muertazzq
PugnaPoloson
Grimstroke7e
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 64%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3