PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CFChalice fanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tearlaments
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
poyoyo · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
Ringmaster
7e · 6 games
Snapfire
7e · 6 games
Chalice fan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
351 picks · 322 bans
Puck
332 picks · 829 bans
Snapfire
303 picks · 152 bans
Pugna
288 picks · 323 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 776 bans
Tusk
276 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
272 picks · 124 bans
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Tearlaments 92%Chalice fan 8%
The model gave 92% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments.
Game 2prediction correct
Tearlaments 92%Chalice fan 8%
The model gave 92% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments.
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 92%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2