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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jhocam · 18 games
33%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Jhocam · 18 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ws · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ws · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ws · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kuku · 14 games
29%

BOOM Esports

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
JaCkky · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
Tims · 18 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 14 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 12 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Tims · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
JaCkky · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
348 picks · 322 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
329 picks · 829 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
301 picks · 152 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
288 picks · 321 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 776 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
275 picks · 245 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
271 picks · 123 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total62% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Talon Esports 62%BOOM Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports.
Game 2prediction missed7:27
Talon Esports 56%BOOM Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin23savage
58% · 182 games47% · 286 games
Dragon KnightJaCkky
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckMikoto
50% · 377 games51% · 234 games
EarthshakerJabz
Earthshaker
Mars
MarsWs
48% · 194 games46% · 217 games
Void SpiritSancity
Void Spirit
Chen
ChenOli
63% · 108 games44% · 177 games
SnapfireJhocam
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQ
47% · 237 games46% · 184 games
DisruptorNARMAN
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct33:25
Talon Esports 55%BOOM Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mage23savage
60% · 28 games50% · 240 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckMikoto
47% · 345 games54% · 197 games
EarthshakerJabz
Earthshaker
Pangolier
PangolierWs
45% · 289 games51% · 171 game
Void SpiritSancity
Void Spirit
Chen
ChenOli
64% · 123 games46% · 137 games
SnapfireJhocam
Snapfire
Windranger
WindrangerQ
42% · 82 games47% · 122 games
DisruptorNARMAN
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 62%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3