FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TATeam Aureusloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Batrideroften banned
Jing · 7 games
Tiny
Akashi · 7 games
Doomsignature
Raven · 6 games
Leshrac
Mac · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Raven · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
Raven · 4 games
Team Aureus
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 8 games
Disruptor
Tims · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Bristleback
Force · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 3 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
345 picks · 319 bans
Puck
327 picks · 826 bans
Snapfire
298 picks · 149 bans
Pugna
287 picks · 318 bans
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 773 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 245 bans
Warlock
269 picks · 123 bans
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:17
Team Nemesis 40%Team Aureus 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracMac
GyrocopterNatsumi
UrsaAkashi
BristlebackForce
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
PuckYopaj
TinyJing
SnapfireTims
Naga SirenPonyo
AxeSkem
Game 2prediction correct9:23
Team Nemesis 38%Team Aureus 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 28:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetAkashi
Dragon KnightNatsumi
MarsRaven
Centaur WarrunnerForce
LeshracMac
Sand KingYopaj
HoodwinkJing
EnchantressSkem
TuskPonyo
SnapfireTims
Game 3prediction missed28:5
Team Nemesis 39%Team Aureus 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordAkashi
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Ember SpiritMac
DawnbreakerForce
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
PangolierYopaj
BatriderJing
DisruptorSkem
WarlockPonyo
TuskTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 71%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3