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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 3:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 3:0
the bugloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 24 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 24 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 20 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Bignum · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
YamSun · 15 games
73%

the bug

Warlock
Warlock
empyrean5 · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 3 games
33%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Boris · 3 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
empyrean5 · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
empyrean5 · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
343 picks · 319 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 824 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
295 picks · 149 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
287 picks · 318 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 770 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 245 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
269 picks · 123 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:0
Wildcard Gaming 64%the bug 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 15:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYamSun
44% · 28 games46% · 129 games
SvenBoris
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
50% · 117 games52% · 147 games
Queen of PainiAnnihilate
Queen of Pain
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRCY
56% · 161 game57% · 239 games
Phoenixempyrean5
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireSpeeed
43% · 118 games
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
47% · 91 game
Game 2prediction correct26:4
Wildcard Gaming 64%the bug 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 20:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRCY
50% · 97 games50% · 192 games
Templar AssassinBoris
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
60% · 51 game63% · 4 games
Outworld DestroyeriAnnihilate
Outworld Destroyer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYamSun
40% · 92 games47% · 214 games
Snapfireempyrean5
Snapfire
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSpeeed
63% · 60 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
42% · 110 games
Game 3prediction correct29:10
Wildcard Gaming 64%the bug 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYamSun
52% · 103 games53% · 188 games
GyrocopterBoris
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingRCY
52% · 127 games43% · 101 game
KunkkaiAnnihilate
Kunkka
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
47% · 57 games49% · 122 games
Silencerempyrean5
Silencer
Snapfire
SnapfireSpeeed
53% · 57 games
Disruptor
DisruptorBignum
51% · 67 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 75%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3