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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
39%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
35%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 16 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 15 games
47%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
31%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 29 games
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 28 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 18 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Xibbe · 16 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mo13ei · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
343 picks · 319 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
327 picks · 824 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
295 picks · 149 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
287 picks · 318 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
278 picks · 770 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 245 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
269 picks · 123 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
267 picks · 171 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
OG 51%AVULUS 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by AVULUS.
Game 2prediction correct
OG 51%AVULUS 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG.
Game 3prediction correct
OG 51%AVULUS 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3