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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
70%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Crystallize · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 17 games
82%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Moonlight · 16 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
QBFY · 16 games
38%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallize · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 15 games
73%

Inner Circle

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Norma · 4 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 3 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 3 games
33%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
341 picks · 316 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
329 picks · 820 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
291 picks · 147 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
284 picks · 317 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 768 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
271 picks · 246 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
269 picks · 172 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
266 picks · 123 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:11
Passion UA 44%Inner Circle 56%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Passion UA in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMoonlight
43% · 158 games58% · 128 games
Sand Kingdualrazee
Sand King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
42% · 73 games56% · 133 games
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Centaur Warrunner
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
40% · 94 games55% · 54 games
Troll Warlordyowaai
Troll Warlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
43% · 163 games64% · 101 game
Chenflacko
Chen
Disruptor
Disruptorkreker
42% · 136 games56% · 208 games
PugnaFernans
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct24:55
Passion UA 44%Inner Circle 56%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
52% · 257 games44% · 95 games
Svenyowaai
Sven
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMoonlight
53% · 153 games54% · 177 games
Nature's Prophetdualrazee
Nature's Prophet
Slardar
SlardarBatyuk
56% · 83 games45% · 172 games
MarsNorma
Mars
Pugna
Pugnakreker
50% · 220 games50% · 254 games
Phoenixflacko
Phoenix
Lion
LionQBFY
53% · 142 games42% · 157 games
DisruptorFernans
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed47:34
Passion UA 46%Inner Circle 54%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Passion UA in 56:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzMoonlight
48% · 36 games51% · 124 games
Svenyowaai
Sven
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
53% · 112 games57% · 84 games
Leshracdualrazee
Leshrac
Mars
MarsBatyuk
43% · 203 games56% · 214 games
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireQBFY
50% · 216 games48% · 144 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Silencer
Silencerkreker
45% · 140 games49% · 141 game
Disruptorflacko
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 61%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3