BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionHSHong shi zhang zuiwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cloud Risingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hong shi zhang zui
Snapfiresignature
TK · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 7 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
Hoodwink
TK · 5 games
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 4 games
Bane
Undyne_ · 3 games
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 3 games
Skywrath Mage
TK · 3 games
Cloud Rising
Storm Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 4 games
Svenoften banned
Yumeyume · 3 games
Void Spirit
Q7 · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
336 picks · 315 bans
Puck
328 picks · 815 bans
Snapfire
287 picks · 143 bans
Pugna
282 picks · 315 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 766 bans
Tusk
272 picks · 248 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Warlock
265 picks · 120 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total81% Hong shi zhang zui
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:55
Hong shi zhang zui 68%Cloud Rising 32%
The model gave 68% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 1:34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterlou
LeshracQ7
SnapfireTK
KunkkaYumeyume
GyrocopterBEYOND
Naga SirenUndyne_
Game 2prediction correct
Hong shi zhang zui 81%Cloud Rising 19%
The model gave 81% on Hong shi zhang zui — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui.
Model check result
Model favoriteHong shi zhang zui · 81%
Series resultHong shi zhang zui 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2