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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 24 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 17 games
47%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Emo · 13 games
54%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 12 games
42%

Roar Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 5 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 3 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
生死 · 3 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshrac
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
CatYou · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
336 picks · 315 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
328 picks · 815 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
287 picks · 143 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
282 picks · 315 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 766 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
272 picks · 248 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
265 picks · 120 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:22
Yakult Brothers 64%Roar Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 51:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageflyfly
55% · 37 games50% · 100 games
LeshracButterflyEffect
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
44% · 221 game48% · 162 games
SvenUlu
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzeal
43% · 179 games58% · 142 games
Earthshaker生死
Earthshaker
Disruptor
DisruptorPoloson
48% · 186 games50% · 126 games
SnapfireCatYou
Snapfire
Slark
SlarkBoBoKa
46% · 53 games59% · 146 games
PugnaRedPanda
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct28:16
Yakult Brothers 63%Roar Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
50% · 364 games62% · 350 games
BristlebackUlu
Bristleback
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painflyfly
42% · 146 games51% · 322 games
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
47% · 333 games43% · 204 games
Mars生死
Mars
Magnus
MagnusBoBoKa
57% · 276 games50% · 251 game
Shadow DemonCatYou
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptorPoloson
45% · 142 games55% · 134 games
Ancient ApparitionRedPanda
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 78%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2