BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TATeam Aureuswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The MongolZ
Doomoften banned
JG · 3 games
Dragon Knight
Bob · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
DJ · 3 games
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Bob · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 2 games
Team Aureus
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 8 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 7 games
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Bristleback
Force · 4 games
Disruptor
Tims · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 4 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
330 picks · 311 bans
Puck
323 picks · 809 bans
Snapfire
280 picks · 140 bans
Pugna
278 picks · 313 bans
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 757 bans
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 173 bans
Tusk
270 picks · 248 bans
Marci
260 picks · 798 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:14
The MongolZ 26%Team Aureus 74%
The model gave 74% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 17:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwinkace12
GyrocopterNatsumi
57% · 40 games
Templar AssassinYopaj
56% · 39 games
DawnbreakerForce
50% · 28 games
DisruptorTims
63% · 15 games
Naga SirenSkem
Game 2prediction correct
The MongolZ 16%Team Aureus 84%
The model gave 84% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 84%
Series resultTeam Aureus 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2