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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
39%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
35%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 15 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 13 games
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
31%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
330 picks · 311 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 809 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
280 picks · 140 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
278 picks · 313 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 757 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 173 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
270 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
260 picks · 798 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
OG 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:10.
Game 2prediction missed40:39
OG 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 1:18:49.
Game 3prediction missed20:31
OG 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 37:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 56%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3