BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDongloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tearlaments
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
poyoyo · 8 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 6 games
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
Ringmaster
7e · 6 games
Snapfire
7e · 6 games
Dong
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
330 picks · 311 bans
Puck
323 picks · 808 bans
Snapfire
280 picks · 140 bans
Pugna
278 picks · 312 bans
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 757 bans
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 173 bans
Tusk
270 picks · 248 bans
Marci
260 picks · 797 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:15
Tearlaments 83%Dong 17%
The model gave 83% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 18:40.
Game 2prediction correct
Tearlaments 83%Dong 17%
The model gave 83% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments.
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 83%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2