DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs predictionHSHong shi zhang zuiloss 1:3
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Yakult Brotherswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hong shi zhang zui
Snapfiresignature
TK · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BEYOND · 6 games
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 5 games
Hoodwink
TK · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
BEYOND · 4 games
Shadow Demon
Undyne_ · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 3 games
Bane
Undyne_ · 2 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 22 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 17 games
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
Bane
Oli · 12 games
Dark Seeroften banned
BEYOND · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
327 picks · 308 bans
Puck
324 picks · 800 bans
Dawnbreaker
277 picks · 754 bans
Pugna
276 picks · 308 bans
Snapfire
275 picks · 137 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 248 bans
Marci
261 picks · 792 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Hong shi zhang zui
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:32
Hong shi zhang zui 40%Yakult Brothers 60%
The model gave 60% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusalou
Morphlingflyfly
DawnbreakerBEYOND
Earthshakerzeal
PuckTK
MuertaBoBoKa
TuskUndyne_
Void SpiritEmo
48% · 152 games
SnapfirePoloson
Game 2prediction correct19:30
Hong shi zhang zui 41%Yakult Brothers 59%
The model gave 59% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
Anti-Mageflyfly
EarthshakerBEYOND
Storm SpiritEmo
MuertaTK
Undyingzeal
BaneUndyne_
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
46% · 121 game
DisruptorPoloson
Game 3prediction missed47:29
Hong shi zhang zui 41%Yakult Brothers 59%
The model gave 59% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Hong shi zhang zui in 1:09:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursalou
Templar Assassinflyfly
PangolierBEYOND
Storm SpiritEmo
Skywrath MageTK
MarsBoBoKa
PugnaUndyne_
Enigmazeal
60% · 74 games
Elder TitanPoloson
Game 4prediction correct4:16
Hong shi zhang zui 44%Yakult Brothers 56%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
Dragon Knightflyfly
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Earthshakerzeal
HoodwinkTK
Ember SpiritEmo
Naga SirenUndyne_
PudgeBoBoKa
51% · 152 games
SnapfirePoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 67%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4