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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 18 games
56%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Disruptor
Disruptor
asdekor_r · 17 games
41%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Wein · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 15 games
47%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 15 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
ssnovv1 · 13 games
69%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
asdekor_r · 13 games
31%

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 23 games
70%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 16 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
SSS · 14 games
57%
Doom
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
79%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
323 picks · 304 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 793 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
276 picks · 305 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 751 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
272 picks · 135 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
269 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 786 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total76% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:37
eSpoiled 38%1w Team 62%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:00:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusassnovv1
53% · 204 games45% · 208 games
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
48% · 399 games47% · 81 game
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
60% · 152 games43% · 160 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Snapfire
SnapfireWein
50% · 126 games49% · 163 games
Jakirokasane
Jakiro
52% · 269 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed22:19
eSpoiled 38%1w Team 62%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordssnovv1
58% · 54 games49% · 143 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Slardar
SlardarDifference
52% · 91 game44% · 146 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
59% · 113 games40% · 58 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Tusk
TuskWein
52% · 299 games44% · 53 games
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
Bounty Hunter
47% · 157 games
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed23:12
eSpoiled 38%1w Team 62%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusassnovv1
52% · 207 games48% · 193 games
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDifference
51% · 371 game42% · 100 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Elder Titan
Elder Titanasdekor_r
53% · 150 games41% · 159 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Bane
BaneWein
65% · 129 games42% · 134 games
Jakirokasane
Jakiro
51% · 271 game
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 76%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3