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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 35 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 34 games
53%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 28 games
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 25 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Panto · 24 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
kiyotaka · 21 game
57%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 33 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 30 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 29 games
66%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 28 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 28 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 25 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
323 picks · 304 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 793 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
276 picks · 305 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 751 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
272 picks · 135 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
269 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 786 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:18
Aurora Gaming 68%Runa Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshrackiyotaka
49% · 149 games55% · 142 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
53% · 356 games50% · 144 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 182 games54% · 339 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
50% · 185 games48% · 268 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
50% · 155 games46% · 134 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct33:22
Aurora Gaming 69%Runa Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageNightfall
52% · 31 game55% · 174 games
Gyrocopternesfeer
Gyrocopter
Puck
Puckkiyotaka
52% · 304 games59% · 71 game
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 192 games50% · 183 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Warlock
WarlockPanto
48% · 190 games43% · 207 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Disruptor
DisruptorMira
44% · 130 games48% · 212 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 83%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2