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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Aureusloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Shanks · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 8 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnus
Tino- · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 7 games
71%

Team Aureus

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 6 games
83%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Force · 4 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Tims · 3 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 3 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 792 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
321 picks · 301 bans
48%
Pugna
Pugna
276 picks · 304 bans
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 173 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
271 picks · 750 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
269 picks · 134 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
268 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 782 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 75%
Hero pool strength56% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:23
Execration 46%Team Aureus 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPalos
56% · 116 games54% · 214 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Dazzle
DazzleTino-
45% · 66 games56% · 180 games
Templar AssassinYopaj
Templar Assassin
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBob
54% · 184 games49% · 223 games
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Tusk
TuskShanks
47% · 397 games49% · 145 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Disruptor
Disruptorcml
47% · 143 games42% · 144 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed
Execration 39%Team Aureus 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Execration.
Game 3prediction missed
Execration 39%Team Aureus 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 61%
Series resultExecration 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3