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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cloud Risingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
生死 · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 3 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
RedPanda · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
生死 · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 2 games
100%

Cloud Rising

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 3 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Q7 · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Q7 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 789 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
321 picks · 298 bans
48%
Pugna
Pugna
276 picks · 302 bans
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 172 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
271 picks · 749 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
269 picks · 131 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
268 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
261 picks · 779 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:16
Roar Gaming 61%Cloud Rising 39%
The model gave 61% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverUlu
46% · 22 games51% · 112 games
SvenYumeyume
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracButterflyEffect
44% · 55 games55% · 223 games
Storm SpiritQ7
Storm Spirit
Mars
Mars生死
48% · 73 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCatYou
45% · 74 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRedPanda
50% · 111 games
Game 2prediction correct28:24
Roar Gaming 61%Cloud Rising 39%
The model gave 61% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracButterflyEffect
50% · 70 games55% · 160 games
Nature's ProphetYumeyume
Nature's Prophet
Ursa
UrsaUlu
51% · 74 games53% · 244 games
BeastmasterQ7
Beastmaster
Mars
Mars生死
40% · 87 games
Enchantress
EnchantressRedPanda
45% · 83 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCatYou
46% · 90 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 71%
Series resultRoar Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2