DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TATeam Aureuswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Witch Doctor
cml · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
Shanks · 9 games
Batridersignature
Shanks · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 8 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 6 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 6 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Tino- · 6 games
Team Aureus
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Bristleback
Force · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 3 games
Disruptor
Tims · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Force · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
320 picks · 787 bans
Disruptor
318 picks · 296 bans
Pugna
274 picks · 301 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 172 bans
Dawnbreaker
271 picks · 746 bans
Tusk
267 picks · 248 bans
Snapfire
266 picks · 129 bans
Marci
261 picks · 774 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Aureus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:22
Execration 41%Team Aureus 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPalos
AbaddonNatsumi
Queen of PainBob
BristlebackForce
MarsTino-
Sand KingYopaj
Chencml
HoodwinkTims
SnapfireShanks
WarlockSkem
Game 2prediction missed32:16
Execration 39%Team Aureus 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Execration in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendPalos
Sand KingYopaj
Queen of PainBob
GyrocopterNatsumi
MagnusTino-
AxeForce
SnapfireShanks
ChenSkem
Tuskcml
DisruptorTims
Game 3prediction correct
Execration 33%Team Aureus 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Aureus — the game was taken by Team Aureus.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aureus · 67%
Series resultTeam Aureus 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3