BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tearlaments
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
Kunkkasignature
Echo · 6 games
Ringmaster
7e · 6 games
Tinysignature
Echo · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
zzq · 5 games
Surge Gaming
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hara · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Irving · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
Hara · 3 games
Svenoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Night · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Night · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
316 picks · 784 bans
Disruptor
315 picks · 291 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 743 bans
Pugna
269 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 248 bans
Snapfire
263 picks · 127 bans
Marci
261 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Tearlaments
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:15
Tearlaments 71%Surge Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 25:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
LycanIrving
Ember SpiritEcho
BatriderNight
MarsSrf
EnchantressHara
Pugnazzq
Hoodwink7e
Game 2prediction correct21:14
Tearlaments 73%Surge Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunapoyoyo
NecrophosIrving
Shadow FiendEcho
Queen of PainNight
EarthshakerSrf
PugnaHara
Naga Sirenzzq
Hoodwink7e
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 85%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2