?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Flamewin 2:0
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Flame

Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Argius · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshrac
S1RENM · 1 game
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
100%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Argius · 1 game
100%

Estar Backs

Tusk
Tusk
Prada · 7 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lumière · 6 games
83%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 5 games
40%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Prada · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 4 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
314 picks · 781 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
313 picks · 290 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 736 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
269 picks · 300 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
264 picks · 248 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
260 picks · 758 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
259 picks · 123 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Flame
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:7
Flame 43%Estar Backs 57%
The model gave 57% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Flame in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingArgius
59% · 184 games43% · 202 games
TerrorbladebsK7-
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackAdrx
59% · 228 games48% · 273 games
TuskMichael
Tusk
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendS1RENM
51% · 146 games41% · 83 games
DisruptorAccel
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed24:34
Flame 39%Estar Backs 61%
The model gave 61% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Flame in 40:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaArgius
36% · 45 games56% · 49 games
UrsabsK7-
Ursa
Lycan
LycanAdrx
55% · 51 game47% · 105 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritS1RENM
42% · 102 games63% · 44 games
SilencerAccel
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 70%
Series resultFlame 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2