Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NHNo Hoodwinkloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstroke
Aidar · 22 games
Largooften banned
86 · 12 games
Lion
Aidar · 12 games
Kunkka
86 · 11 games
Batridersignature
86 · 10 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kae · 9 games
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 8 games
No Hoodwink
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 5 games
Lion
Katari_ · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
Dark Willow
Katari_ · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
re1bl · 4 games
Mirana
Katari_ · 4 games
Winter Wyvern
asdekor_r · 4 games
Baneoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
500 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
354 picks · 640 bans
Bane
347 picks · 396 bans
Rubick
328 picks · 183 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 453 bans
Tiny
313 picks · 344 bans
Shadow Fiend
301 picks · 568 bans
Windranger
298 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% No Hoodwink
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% No Hoodwink
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:26
Team Spirit Academy 41%No Hoodwink 59%
The model gave 59% on No Hoodwink — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 46:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largokae
Linare1bl
Earth Spirit86
Svenrubikon155
Dark WillowAidar
Dawnbreakermangekyou
62% · 63 games
LionKatari_
65% · 52 games
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
Game 2prediction missed41:18
Team Spirit Academy 45%No Hoodwink 55%
The model gave 55% on No Hoodwink — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider86
Broodmothermangekyou
Night Stalkerkae
Ember Spiritre1bl
Dark WillowAidar
Linarubikon155
45% · 35 games
GrimstrokeKatari_
49% · 67 games
Undyingasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Hoodwink · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2