DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam Slayersloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TKTeam KaranDoteswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Slayers
No games played over 6 months.
Team KaranDotes
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
314 picks · 781 bans
Disruptor
313 picks · 289 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 734 bans
Pugna
269 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
264 picks · 248 bans
Marci
260 picks · 756 bans
Snapfire
259 picks · 123 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Slayers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Slayers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Team Slayers 62%Team KaranDotes 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Slayers — the game was taken by Team Slayers in 27:04.
Game 2prediction missed12:43
Team Slayers 62%Team KaranDotes 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Slayers — the game was taken by Team KaranDotes in 34:55.
Game 3prediction missed39:27
Team Slayers 62%Team KaranDotes 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Slayers — the game was taken by Team KaranDotes in 47:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Slayers · 62%
Series resultTeam KaranDotes 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3