DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 3 games
Warlock
flacko · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Magnus
Norma · 2 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Tusk
Fernans · 2 games
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 23 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 16 games
Bristleback
SSS · 14 games
Doomsignature
Munkushi~ · 14 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
312 picks · 778 bans
Disruptor
311 picks · 286 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 730 bans
Pugna
266 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
263 picks · 250 bans
Marci
259 picks · 749 bans
Snapfire
255 picks · 119 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:34
Inner Circle 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomyowaai
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Queen of PainSquad1x
MagnusNorma
DawnbreakerSSS
Warlockflacko
Snapfireswedenstrong
TuskFernans
Elder Titankasane
Game 2prediction correct13:42
Inner Circle 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerdualrazee
Queen of PainSquad1x
Troll Warlordyowaai
LifestealerMunkushi~
MagnusNorma
SlardarSSS
BatriderFernans
Snapfirekasane
Pugnaflacko
Clockwerkswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 65%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2