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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OG LATAMwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Peru Rejectsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG LATAM

Tusk
Tusk
Elmisho · 12 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoOz · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
K1 · 8 games
38%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 8 games
25%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
K1 · 7 games
43%

Peru Rejects

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Frank · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Elmisho · 2 games
50%
Underlord
Underlord
Frank · 2 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Yadomi · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
DarkMago · 1 game
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 777 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
309 picks · 283 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 724 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
265 picks · 298 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
262 picks · 250 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
258 picks · 746 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 596 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:24
OG LATAM 47%Peru Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCostabile
47% · 45 games55% · 31 game
Broodmotherpayk
Broodmother
Lycan
LycanFCR
50% · 118 games50% · 144 games
EarthshakerDarkMago
Earthshaker
Puck
PuckAlone
50% · 237 games55% · 95 games
Dark SeerFrank
Dark Seer
Zeus
ZeusPanda
46% · 54 games48% · 200 games
ClockwerkElmisho
Clockwerk
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterGenek
50% · 108 games51% · 92 games
Queen of PainYadomi
Queen of Pain
Game 2prediction missed34:21
OG LATAM 47%Peru Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 39:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCostabile
46% · 119 games54% · 297 games
Bristlebackpayk
Bristleback
Pudge
PudgeAlone
48% · 27 games52% · 88 games
SlardarDarkMago
Slardar
Batrider
BatriderFCR
51% · 263 games53% · 153 games
MarsFrank
Mars
Magnus
MagnusGenek
59% · 206 games48% · 140 games
SilencerYadomi
Silencer
Warlock
WarlockPanda
46% · 222 games42% · 159 games
MarciElmisho
Marci
Game 3prediction missed31:33
OG LATAM 47%Peru Rejects 53%
The model gave 53% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by OG LATAM in 50:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCostabile
50% · 130 games51% · 77 games
Lunapayk
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackFCR
54% · 192 games54% · 185 games
EarthshakerDarkMago
Earthshaker
Leshrac
LeshracAlone
52% · 73 games49% · 113 games
LycanFrank
Lycan
Disruptor
DisruptorPanda
45% · 124 games42% · 139 games
SnapfireElmisho
Snapfire
Magnus
MagnusGenek
57% · 173 games47% · 178 games
EnchantressYadomi
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 55%
Series resultOG LATAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3