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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
the bugloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 23 games
70%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 23 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 20 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Bane
Bane
Bignum · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
YamSun · 15 games
73%

the bug

Disruptor
Disruptor
empyrean5 · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 2 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Boris · 2 games
100%
Warlock
Warlock
empyrean5 · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
empyrean5 · 1 game
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 1 game
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 1 game
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Nyx · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 773 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
307 picks · 282 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 719 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
265 picks · 297 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 249 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
258 picks · 743 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 596 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Wildcard Gaming 64%the bug 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYamSun
57% · 144 games47% · 127 games
UrsaBoris
Ursa
Sand King
Sand KingRCY
55% · 154 games50% · 311 games
Ember SpiritiAnnihilate
Ember Spirit
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainFayde
46% · 172 games47% · 218 games
Warlockempyrean5
Warlock
Chen
ChenSpeeed
56% · 95 games47% · 196 games
Hoodwinkbgod
Hoodwink
Tusk
TuskBignum
48% · 287 games
Game 2prediction correct27:4
Wildcard Gaming 63%the bug 37%
The model gave 63% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 21:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
53% · 70 games64% · 9 games
MeepoBoris
Meepo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYamSun
63% · 4 games50% · 113 games
Queen of PainiAnnihilate
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritRCY
51% · 51 game47% · 94 games
Warlockempyrean5
Warlock
Enchantress
EnchantressSpeeed
51% · 61 game52% · 17 games
Pudgebgod
Pudge
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
43% · 47 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 73%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2