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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
61%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 17 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
slimeyao · 16 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 33 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 30 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 28 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 28 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 23 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
310 picks · 772 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
305 picks · 282 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
267 picks · 719 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
265 picks · 297 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 248 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
258 picks · 741 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 596 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:17
HULIGANI 50%Runa Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
57% · 3 games49% · 203 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBb3px
50% · 153 games58% · 74 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
56% · 216 games41% · 57 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Snapfire
Snapfireslimeyao
48% · 128 games61% · 89 games
ChenHduo
Chen
Disruptor
DisruptorRESPECT
44% · 86 games43% · 163 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed12:30
HULIGANI 50%Runa Team 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Runa Team in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomv1olent-
52% · 170 games52% · 40 games
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Faceless Void
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienderase
52% · 133 games51% · 199 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBb3px
48% · 153 games51% · 128 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
52% · 110 games44% · 213 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
Clockwerkslimeyao
49% · 163 games50% · 149 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 51%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2