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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circlewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnus
Norma · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
flacko · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
flacko · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Norma · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
308 picks · 770 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
302 picks · 280 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 174 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
264 picks · 715 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
264 picks · 295 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
258 picks · 247 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
257 picks · 734 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
255 picks · 597 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:21
Kalmychata 64%Inner Circle 36%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 33:24.
Game 2prediction missed12:20
Kalmychata 64%Inner Circle 36%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 27:05.
Game 3prediction missed19:18
Kalmychata 64%Inner Circle 36%
The model gave 64% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 31:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 64%
Series resultInner Circle 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3