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BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 28 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
47%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 33 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 29 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 28 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 28 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 26 games
73%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
307 picks · 769 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
301 picks · 279 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
270 picks · 174 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
264 picks · 715 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
264 picks · 295 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
258 picks · 247 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
257 picks · 732 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
255 picks · 597 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:45
Virtus.pro 54%Runa Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Runa Team in 50:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTimado
58% · 61 game44% · 129 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Puck
PuckAbed
50% · 252 games52% · 148 games
Bristlebacknesfeer
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
51% · 102 games47% · 64 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
57% · 15 games42% · 103 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFly
57% · 94 games47% · 80 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed11:25
Virtus.pro 56%Runa Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Runa Team in 38:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonTimado
51% · 188 games49% · 98 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Leshrac
LeshracAbed
51% · 152 games48% · 99 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsDaxak
49% · 194 games48% · 222 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireFly
44% · 151 game46% · 151 game
WarlockHduo
Warlock
Slark
SlarkAntares
63% · 62 games52% · 177 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 62%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2