BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 33 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 29 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 28 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 27 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 25 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 22 games
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
302 picks · 758 bans
Disruptor
293 picks · 271 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
263 picks · 287 bans
Dawnbreaker
260 picks · 707 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 244 bans
Marci
253 picks · 717 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total65% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:24
Runa Team 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinnesfeer
MarciOtaker
SlardarAlberkaaa
Sand KingNattyNarwhal
Earthshakernicky`cool
Snapfireariel
WarlockHduo
SilencerPERDAN4IK
Batriderqueezy
Game 2prediction correct28:9
Runa Team 58%4Pirates 42%
The model gave 58% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 25:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Troll WarlordOtaker
Timbersawnicky`cool
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
MarciAlberkaaa
Batriderariel
OracleHduo
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
Snapfirequeezy
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 65%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2