BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aim Possiblewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 8 games
Silencersignature
Kidaro · 8 games
Dragon Knightsignature
xn丶e · 7 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Palantimos · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 4 games
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Ancient Apparition
Garbat1y · 4 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 3 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Doomoften banned
chempik · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
302 picks · 758 bans
Disruptor
293 picks · 271 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
263 picks · 287 bans
Dawnbreaker
260 picks · 707 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 244 bans
Marci
253 picks · 717 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 26%
Hero pool strength66% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Pipsqueak+4 86%Aim Possible 14%
The model gave 86% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4.
Game 2prediction missed12:30
Pipsqueak+4 73%Aim Possible 27%
The model gave 73% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNande
Magnuszenica
Storm Spiritxn丶e
UndyingPalantimos
ChenKidaro
LionKaori
Game 3prediction missed23:41
Pipsqueak+4 73%Aim Possible 27%
The model gave 73% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Aim Possible in 46:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterPalantimos
Dawnbreakerzenica
PudgeNande
Monkey Kingxn丶e
WarlockKidaro
BaneKaori
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 86%
Series resultAim Possible 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3