Nemiga Gaming vs Passion UA — prediction BSIОК · Dota 2

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BLAST Slam IV. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2

series probability

47%53%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Passion UAwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spiritsignature

young G · 23 games

65%

Terrorbladeoften banned

bashka · 18 games

44%

Centaur Warrunnersignature

Covisnine · 16 games

63%

Marssignature

Covisnine · 15 games

60%

Dark Willowsignature

xsvampire · 14 games

71%

Jakiro

monodrama · 14 games

29%

Nature's Prophetsignature

bashka · 13 games

62%

Windranger

xsvampire · 13 games

46%

Passion UA

Tinysignature

QBFY · 32 games

69%

Doomoften banned

Crystallize · 24 games

58%

Dark Willow

QBFY · 17 games

41%

Shadow Shaman

QBFY · 16 games

38%

Storm Spiritsignature

Moonlight · 16 games

81%

Shadow Fiendsignature

Moonlight · 15 games

73%

Abaddonoften banned

Crystallize · 14 games

50%

Leshracsignature

Moonlight · 14 games

64%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

302 picks · 758 bans

51%

Disruptor

293 picks · 271 bans

48%

Shadow Shaman

271 picks · 173 bans

49%

Pugna

263 picks · 287 bans

55%

Dawnbreaker

260 picks · 707 bans

49%

Tusk

256 picks · 244 bans

46%

Marci

253 picks · 717 bans

54%

Nature's Prophet

251 picks · 590 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)49% vs 55%

Hero pool strength54% Passion UA

Head-to-head2 – 2

Model total53% Passion UA

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct28:38

Nemiga Gaming 47%Passion UA 53%

The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 56:33.

Game 2prediction missed21:40

Nemiga Gaming 51%Passion UA 49%

The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Passion UA in 48:01.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo