DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Roar Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Rising
Storm Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
Svenoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Void Spirit
Q7 · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Roar Gaming
Disruptor
RedPanda · 4 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 3 games
Earthshakeroften banned
生死 · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
生死 · 2 games
Marcioften banned
CatYou · 2 games
Snapfire
CatYou · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
RedPanda · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
300 picks · 749 bans
Disruptor
291 picks · 264 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
262 picks · 283 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 702 bans
Tusk
254 picks · 243 bans
Marci
253 picks · 709 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:32
Cloud Rising 42%Roar Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritQ7
TerrorbladeUlu
Troll WarlordYumeyume
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
59% · 26 games
Mars生死
40% · 41 game
SnapfireCatYou
51% · 31 game
ClockwerkRedPanda
Game 2prediction correct4:29
Cloud Rising 41%Roar Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Roar Gaming in 27:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoYumeyume
TerrorbladeUlu
Dragon KnightQ7
PuckButterflyEffect
50% · 50 games
Primal Beast生死
49% · 51 game
Shadow DemonCatYou
53% · 96 games
ClockwerkRedPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 68%
Series resultRoar Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2