DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTThrivingloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thriving
No games played over 6 months.
Surge Gaming
Enchantressoften banned
Hara · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Irving · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
Hara · 2 games
Svenoften banned
ukiyo · 2 games
Axeoften banned
Irving · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Hara · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
299 picks · 748 bans
Disruptor
290 picks · 261 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
261 picks · 280 bans
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 697 bans
Tusk
253 picks · 243 bans
Marci
252 picks · 703 bans
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Surge Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Surge Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:18
Thriving 46%Surge Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by Surge Gaming in 17:47.
Game 2prediction correct22:22
Thriving 46%Surge Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by Surge Gaming in 26:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteSurge Gaming · 54%
Series resultSurge Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2