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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kukuyswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kukuys

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Gabbi · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Natsumi · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gabbi · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Yowe · 1 game
100%

Ivory

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Dric~ · 5 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Dric~ · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ken · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
299 picks · 748 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
290 picks · 261 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
261 picks · 280 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 697 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
253 picks · 243 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
252 picks · 703 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 579 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Ivory
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:18
Kukuys 65%Ivory 35%
The model gave 65% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 32:17.
Game 2prediction missed40:40
Kukuys 65%Ivory 35%
The model gave 65% on Kukuys — the game was taken by Ivory in 54:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteKukuys · 65%
Series resultKukuys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2