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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sentinel Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AllStarswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sentinel Esports

Phoenix
Phoenix
Pamplona · 4 games
100%
Slardar
Slardar
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
555k · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555k · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pamplona · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Hermit · 2 games
100%

AllStars

Mars
Marsoften banned
blessed kid · 6 games
33%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Accel · 6 games
83%
Omniknight
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
20%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
FeelinG · 5 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Accel · 5 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
bsK7- · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
299 picks · 747 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
289 picks · 261 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
260 picks · 280 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 695 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
253 picks · 243 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
252 picks · 701 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 578 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Sentinel Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Sentinel Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:31
Sentinel Esports 53%AllStars 47%
The model gave 53% on Sentinel Esports — the game was taken by AllStars in 41:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsHermit
41% · 137 games64% · 55 games
Lycanblessed kid
Lycan
Enchantress
Enchantress555k
53% · 151 game52% · 143 games
Storm SpiritBenjimon
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPamplona
44% · 172 games50% · 134 games
HoodwinkAsao
Hoodwink
50% · 128 games
PugnaFeelinG
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed
Sentinel Esports 55%AllStars 45%
The model gave 55% on Sentinel Esports — the game was taken by AllStars.
Model check result
Model favoriteSentinel Esports · 55%
Series resultAllStars 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2